Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires
accurate characterization of how the relationship between forest productivity
and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two
million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution
methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing
scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2-fertilisation,
which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1)
climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and
positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and
northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects
of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal
greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for
continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the
importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional
differences in growth responses to climate change.
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